Climate change beliefs count: Relationships with voting outcomes at the 2010 Australian federal election
Author(s) / Creator(s)
McCrea, Rod
Leviston, Zoe
Walker, Iain
Shyy, Tung-Kai
Abstract / Description
Climate change is a political as well as an environmental issue. Climate change beliefs are commonly associated with voting behaviour, but are they associated with swings in voting behaviour? The latter are arguably more important for election outcomes. This paper investigates the predictive power of these beliefs on voting swings at the 2010 Australian federal election after controlling for a range of other related factors (demographic characteristics of voters, different worldviews about nature and the role of government, and the perceived opportunity cost of addressing climate change). Drawing on data from two nationally representative surveys of voters and data from the Australian Electoral Commission, this paper investigates relationships between climate change beliefs and voting swings at both the individual and electorate levels. At an individual level, a hypothetical 10% change in climate change beliefs was associated with a 2.6% swing from a conservative Coalition and a 2.0% swing toward Labor and 1.7% toward the Greens party, both left on the political spectrum. At the electorate level, this equates to a shift of 21 seats between the two main political parties (the Coalition and Labor) in Australia’s 150 seat parliament, after allocating Green preferences. Given many seats are marginal, even modest shifts in climate change beliefs can be associated with changes in electoral outcomes. Thus, climate change is expected to remain a politically contested issue in countries like Australia where political parties seek to distinguish themselves, in part, by their responses to climate change.
Keyword(s)
climate change scepticism denial politics elections voting behaviourPersistent Identifier
Date of first publication
2015-05-05
Journal title
Journal of Social and Political Psychology
Volume
3
Issue
1
Page numbers
124–141
Publisher
PsychOpen GOLD
Publication status
publishedVersion
Review status
peerReviewed
Is version of
Citation
McCrea, R., Leviston, Z., Walker, I., & Shyy, T.-K. (2015). Climate change beliefs count: Relationships with voting outcomes at the 2010 Australian federal election. Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 3(1), 124–141. https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v3i1.376
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There are no other versions of this object.
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Author(s) / Creator(s)McCrea, Rod
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Author(s) / Creator(s)Leviston, Zoe
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Author(s) / Creator(s)Walker, Iain
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Author(s) / Creator(s)Shyy, Tung-Kai
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PsychArchives acquisition timestamp2018-11-26T12:45:00Z
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Made available on2018-11-26T12:45:00Z
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Date of first publication2015-05-05
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Abstract / DescriptionClimate change is a political as well as an environmental issue. Climate change beliefs are commonly associated with voting behaviour, but are they associated with swings in voting behaviour? The latter are arguably more important for election outcomes. This paper investigates the predictive power of these beliefs on voting swings at the 2010 Australian federal election after controlling for a range of other related factors (demographic characteristics of voters, different worldviews about nature and the role of government, and the perceived opportunity cost of addressing climate change). Drawing on data from two nationally representative surveys of voters and data from the Australian Electoral Commission, this paper investigates relationships between climate change beliefs and voting swings at both the individual and electorate levels. At an individual level, a hypothetical 10% change in climate change beliefs was associated with a 2.6% swing from a conservative Coalition and a 2.0% swing toward Labor and 1.7% toward the Greens party, both left on the political spectrum. At the electorate level, this equates to a shift of 21 seats between the two main political parties (the Coalition and Labor) in Australia’s 150 seat parliament, after allocating Green preferences. Given many seats are marginal, even modest shifts in climate change beliefs can be associated with changes in electoral outcomes. Thus, climate change is expected to remain a politically contested issue in countries like Australia where political parties seek to distinguish themselves, in part, by their responses to climate change.en_US
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Publication statuspublishedVersion
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Review statuspeerReviewed
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CitationMcCrea, R., Leviston, Z., Walker, I., & Shyy, T.-K. (2015). Climate change beliefs count: Relationships with voting outcomes at the 2010 Australian federal election. Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 3(1), 124–141. https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v3i1.376en_US
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ISSN2195-3325
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Persistent Identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12034/1368
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Persistent Identifierhttps://doi.org/10.23668/psycharchives.1738
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Language of contenteng
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PublisherPsychOpen GOLD
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Is version ofhttps://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v3i1.376
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Keyword(s)climate changeen_US
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Keyword(s)scepticismen_US
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Keyword(s)denialen_US
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Keyword(s)politicsen_US
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Keyword(s)electionsen_US
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Keyword(s)voting behaviouren_US
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Dewey Decimal Classification number(s)150
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TitleClimate change beliefs count: Relationships with voting outcomes at the 2010 Australian federal electionen_US
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DRO typearticle
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Issue1
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Journal titleJournal of Social and Political Psychology
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Page numbers124–141
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Volume3
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Visible tag(s)Version of Record