Preregistration: Impulsivity and online sports betting behaviour: Untangling the causal relationship (ISPO study)

Background: Online sports betting is growing in popularity worldwide and is increasingly being legalised. Researchers and policymakers are concerned about potential negative consequences for individuals and public health, as cross-sectional studies have linked online sports betting to significant rates of gambling problems. In order to develop evidence-based prevention and intervention strategies for GD, there is a strong need to understand its underlying processes. It is well researched that impulsivity is a risk factor for GD. At the same time, studies on player tracking data have shown that risky gambling behaviour is an early marker for GD. In the planned project, we will answer the research question of whether increased impulsivity leads to risky online gambling behaviour, which in turn leads to GD. Methods: In a longitudinal cross-lagged design, impulsivity, risky gambling behaviour and gambling disorder symptoms will be assessed three times at three-month intervals. A sample of n=370 regular sports bettors will be recruited from the online gambling provider Tipico. Impulsivity and gambling disorder symptoms will be assessed via online experimental tasks and questionnaires. As a measure of risky gambling behaviour, Tipico will provide the player tracking data of included participants. We will conduct random intercept cross‐lagged panel models (RI-CLPM) to test the evidence for our hypotheses. Expected results: The results will improve our causal understanding of problematic developments in gambling behavior and provide targets for early prevention measures, such as “applied games” to identify increased impulsivity early and potentially reduce it.